Tuesday, 20 December 2016

The Art Of (Mis)interpreting Polls

It's been a while since I commented on Spanish politics, because Spanish politics are still really really shitty and it just gets me mad. There were 2 general elections in a row (first one didn't work out so well) and, big surprise, the usual parties won. The most corrupt party actually improved their results a lot. The almost as corrupt party lost support but still had more than enough to be relevant, and at least the new corrupt party didn't win as much as the polls said. Anyway, these 3 parties never had any intentions to associate themselves with the new left party (which may not be perfect but it has some good ideas and could improve the situation), because they would have to stop with the corruption and such things, and in a predictable move they kind of allied with each other. The only good part is that the most corrupt party is ruling in minority, so the almost as corrupt party and the new corrupt party are happy with destroying some of the damage the most corrupt party had done by undoing their previous laws and pretending to be very different in this way, and that's at least a bit decent.

Anyway, Spain is ruled by corrupts and far-right patriots and traditionalist, and I've abandoned all hope of this changing in the next 50 years. The next hope is to just separate from that.

So these days there has been an interesting poll about what Catalans think about the independence process and, more particularly, about doing a referendum, plus also which parties would they vote in a theoretical new local election.

This poll was done by a newspaper with a center-left bias, but big supporter of the almost as corrupt party. This party is against voting to see what Catalan people want to do regarding independence, so the newspaper had to give results that reflected that this vote was a problem for Catalunya.

Here the thing is that the poll said otherwise, so the newspaper had to present it in a bad way to try to reinforce their ideas that voting to decide Catalunya's future was bad and divisive.

So, they wrote that "The Referendum splits the Catalan people", saying that around 49% of the people were in favour of doing a referendum unilaterally without consulting Spain, and 48% were against this idea.

Of course, if you say it like this, it seems it's a 50-50 matter. But they had to publish all the results after all, and as some other have pointed (link in Catalan, sorry), the reality is that a staggering  84.6% of the Catalans DO want to vote. It's only that of those 84.6%, there's almost a half that want to vote in a Referendum negotiated with the Spanish government, and are against doing it without consulting Spain.

If you put it like this, it is quite clear what is the will of the people, that are pretty much united in their intention to vote. However, all the corrupt Spanish parties do not understand the "democracy" concept and are against letting the vote happen. They're paralysed in their fear of the "Yes" winning, and instead of negotiating, campaigning for "No" or proposing a better relation between Catalunya and the Spanish government, they close their ears and hope that by making voting illegal (yep, that's right) they can solve the issue. Meanwhile, they keep rescuing private companies with public money, and they keep neglecting inversions in Catalunya, and they keep trying to judge and condemn politicians for trying to discuss and debate the independence topic.

So every day, people are more and more tired of this, and independence gains supporters.

Other results that the newspaper "forgot" to reinforce as quite brutal and tried to diminish their importance or applied make up to them:

-When voting for independence, the "Yes" would win with 54.8% and "No" would get 45.2%.

-The first poll indicated what people preferred, but if there was an unilateral Referendum, 68% of the people would vote anyway, regardless of their previous wish. If you then count what people would vote in this case, "Yes" wins by more than 80%.

-More than half of the people that support parties that are against voting would be in favour of voting anyway.

-56% of Catalan people believe Spain is not a democratic country because they're not allowed to vote on a Referendum.


Now, on the second part of the polls, people were also asked what party would they vote right now in case of elections. The results were that, out of a total of 135 representatives, between 88 and 94 would be from parties considered left or centre, with right parties being relegated to very small numbers . If you count parties in favour of the Referendum, you would get between 84 and 89.

Polls are not exact and who knows for sure what will happen. But it seems to me Catalunya has a chance of something...different. Really different from conservative Spain.

And some people are scared shitless about it...

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